Before you scale, cut, or reallocate ad budget, get an independent verdict from your real orders.
Shopify, Meta, Google, GA4, and Klaviyo rarely agree — and you still have to make the call. SpendProof gives you an independent read on one live decision: is the move supported by the evidence, or not? A clear verdict you can act on and defend, before you commit the spend.
“Should we increase Meta spend 30% next week?” The invented brand's three channels report $505k of attributed revenue while Shopify records $360k of net revenue. Those claims are not additive proof of unique sales, and the reported 6.4× average ROAS does not establish the return on the next dollar.
- What it means for this synthetic decision
- The move isn't shown to be wrong; the supplied aggregates simply do not support it. A bounded test could add decision evidence before the full 30% is committed.
- The number that governs it
- The synthetic margin-adjusted breakeven assumption (~1.8× on the next dollar), not the reported average ROAS.
Written by Swaroop Rao, an analyst with 10 years of analytics and e-commerce experience. You get his judgment on your specific decision — not another dashboard. LinkedIn
Calibrated, not hyped. “Unresolved” is a real verdict. We tell you what the evidence can't yet support — no guaranteed ROAS, no exact dollar claims from data we haven't seen.
Does this sound like your decision?
If any of these is on your table right now, the number you're about to act on may be lying to you.
It isn't that you're bad at this — Shopify itself notes that its reports and your marketing tools often disagree because each uses different attribution logic and spend data can lag. The risk is treating several incompatible claims as if they were one additive view of unique revenue.
Platforms each claim the same sale
Meta, Google, TikTok, and email/SMS can each credit the same conversion. Their claims use different windows and definitions, so adding them does not produce unique revenue.
ROAS looks fine; contribution may not
A healthy reported ROAS can still lose money once real COGS, fulfillment and discounts are in — the memo overlays margin, not just revenue.
The next dollar ≠ the average dollar
A reported average describes prior spend, not the next dollar. The memo treats marginal return as unknown unless the supplied evidence supports it.
How it works
One decision. One memo. Three possible verdicts.
Name the decision
Scaling Meta? Cutting a channel? Reallocating budget? Judging an agency report? We keep the memo scoped to one live money decision.
Send the numbers you already see
Shopify, ad-platform and email/SMS figures — plus a ballpark on margin. Screenshots or exports are enough. No logins, no account access; redact freely.
Get a decision memo
A written verdict — supported, unsupported, or unresolved — with the discrepancy map, a margin overlay, scenarios, a recommended next action, and what would change the conclusion.
Is this for you?
Clear about when it fits — and when it doesn't.
Use SpendProof when
- You're about to scale, cut, or reallocate paid spend.
- Shopify, Meta, Google, GA4, Klaviyo, or an agency report disagree.
- You want an independent read before moving budget.
- You want a bounded decision memo — not a new platform or ongoing analytics work.
Not the right fit when
- You need full attribution infrastructure or a measurement platform.
- You need MMM, multi-touch attribution, or incrementality testing.
- You need campaign management or creative strategy.
- You want a finance close, or there's no live decision on the table.
The method
Why you can trust the memo.
The memo doesn't invent your “true” ROAS or pull from a black box. It reconciles your own reported numbers against each other and against Shopify, overlays margin, and states how strong the evidence is for this specific move.
- Your numbers, shown back to you. Every figure in the memo traces to something you provided or plain arithmetic on it — you can check the math yourself.
- A verdict with limits, not a truth claim. Supported, unsupported, or unresolved — with an explicit list of what would change the conclusion. Never “your tracking is broken.”
- Margin, not just revenue. ROAS is a revenue number; the decision is a profit decision. The memo overlays contribution margin so a healthy ROAS can’t hide a losing move.
- It refuses to fake certainty. When the evidence is too conflicted, the honest answer is “unresolved” plus the cheapest way to resolve it — not a confident guess.
What the memo can — and can't — do
It can
- Show where your reported numbers contradict each other.
- Overlay margin so profit, not just ROAS, drives the call.
- Say whether the evidence supports the move — and what to do next.
It can't
- Create perfect attribution or a “true” per-channel ROAS.
- Replace MMM, MTA, incrementality, or a finance close.
- Promise a revenue lift — that depends on your execution.
Naming what it can't conclude is the point. A memo that over-claims is exactly the kind of number you came here to stop trusting.
Read the full methodology & data handlingThe offer
The Ad Spend Decision Memo — $199.
One live decision in — an independent verdict, the numbers behind it, and your next move out. A one-time read on one scale, cut, or reallocation call: supported, unsupported, or unresolved, with the working shown so you can act on it and defend it. Flat fee, no retainer.
Before work begins, the exact decision, evidence, deliverable, correction boundary, and fixed fee are written into a Decision Brief for explicit acceptance.
The total price is $199 flat, with no upfront payment. You receive the complete memo before payment is due.
- One live decision, one recent window
- Shopify plus 2–4 systems reconciled
- Discrepancy map + margin/profit overlay
- A supported / unsupported / unresolved verdict + next action
Questions founders ask first
Straight answers.
Do you need access to my store or ad accounts?
No. No passwords, no logins, no integrations. You send a few screenshots or exports for one decision window — and you can redact customer names, emails, order IDs and payment details first. You don't need to connect anything to start.
What exactly do I get for $199?
A written Ad Spend Decision Memo on one accepted live decision, with a discrepancy map, contribution-margin overlay, scenarios, limitations, and a Supported / Unsupported / Unresolved verdict with a next action. The total price is $199 flat, with no upfront payment; you receive the complete materially conforming memo before payment is due.
How is this different from my dashboards, attribution tools, or agency?
Those report what each tool believes it drove, continuously — and the definitions often disagree. This is a one-off, evidence-bounded judgment on one accepted decision. It is not another dashboard or an attribution-truth claim.
What does “unresolved” mean — am I paying for a maybe?
Unresolved is a complete verdict when the agreed evidence cannot defensibly support yes or no. The memo must name the exact uncertainty, the decision risk, the least-cost resolution step, and the safe interim action.
Why should I trust the numbers?
Because you can check them. Every figure traces to something you provided or plain arithmetic on it, and each claim is marked observed or inferred. The memo states its own limits rather than over-claiming.
Who's behind it?
Swaroop Rao — an analyst with 10 years of analytics and e-commerce experience. You get his judgment on your accepted decision, and his name is on the memo.
Agree the decision first. Review the complete memo before payment is due.
No account access. One accepted Decision Brief. One fixed $199 fee after materially conforming delivery.